Source: EMARKETER Forecast, May 2025 - June 2025
Note: sales are for Nov and Dec of each year; includes products or services ordered using the internet via mobile devices, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; includes sales on tablets; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: The “limited tariffs” scenario assumes that US tariffs apply only to select trading partners. The “moderate tariffs” scenario assumes that US economic growth slows, but the downturn is limited due to partial tariff relief brought by trade negotiations with other countries. The “heavy tariffs” scenario assumes that broad US tariffs spark a global recession, leading to inflation, retaliation from other countries, and weakened business and consumer sentiment.